Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Thoughts on Alternative Systems

"I suggest we stick with what we have for the rest of the year. However, I will implement Klokkhammer's point about showing the number of games played since this only effects the way the results are presented and not the way they are calculated."


I've done some looking around at various systems and here is what I have found.

1. Many poker leagues use the points system that we currently have:
Points = p - (f-1)
p is the number of players
f is your finish place

This gives a linear result that looks like this for a 9 man sng:

This accounts for 3 elements:
  • Number of players since more players means more points to the top spots. This reflects the increased difficulty in placing higher as the number of players increases.
  • Your finish place. Obviously the winner needs to get the most points.
  • Number of tourneys played. You get at least 1 point just for showing up.
Now, all this seems like a waste of blog space until we look some other systems. The most popular league system seems to be DrNeau's system which looks like this:
Points = (sqrt[(a * b) * (b / c)] )/ (d+1)
a is the total number of buyins in the tourney
b is the buyin price
c is the total price for the player (2*buyin if you had to rebuy for example)
d is your finish place

This system is great if you are running rebuy tourneys like we do in our home games. It also takes into account the buyin amount. If we get a regular home game league going, I'll probably use something similar to DrNeau's system. Since our private games don't include rebuys we can move on to another well know system.

Pokerstars tournament leader board uses the following fomula:
Points = 10* [sqrt(n)/sqrt(k)]*[1+log(b+0,25)]
n is the number of players
k is your finish place
b is the buyin amount

The pokerstars system results in a non-linear graph that looks like this:


As you can see, the top places get more points. I've actually adjusted their formula in the graph above. The last part of the folmula [1+log(b+0,25)] is only needed to account for different buyin levels. We have a set $5.50 buyin so I have dropped this from the eqation in the graph above. So, quit Googling what a "log" is:)

Notice that the minimum number of points you can earn is 10. the 10* at the start of the formula simply controls the baseline number of points. . This is important for the "no show" issue that we have been talking about. Missing a tourney means losing out on at least 10 points. This seems a bit harsh so we can take it out of the equation as well. It doen't effect the actual curve, just the points on the y axis. 30 becomes 3 as the top score and 10 becomes 1 as the bottom.

Now we are left with a curve that only accounts for the number of players and your finish. Just like a payout structure, the top spots earn earn the most. So, moving up from 2nd to 1st results in significantly more points than moving up from 9th to 8th. This would put me ahead of MrSmith and would put seabreeze ahead of Klokkhammer in the standings.

You may have noticed that these other systems all use square roots in their equations. This is good for narrowing the gap between 1st and last, as well as, for weighting the curve. We could adapt our current system to something similar like this:
Points = sqrt[p - (f-1)]
p is the number of players
f is your finish place

This results in an interesting curve.


We can now see that the gap between 1st and last has narrowed and that the lower places are weighted more than the top places. This would not change the standings. However, it would put even more value on playing in tourneys since last place gives 1 point which is huge on this scale.

Summary
DrNeau and Pokerstars systems would be great if we were running multi-table tourneys with rebuys and varied buyins. but they don't work that well for our current situation. Furthermore, these systems as used today only give points to ITM players. By including all players, we create a very negative situation for missing one of our private games.

Furthermore, I really don't want to change our current system mid-season without a clear reason. After reviewing the diffent options, I suggest we stick with what we have for the rest of the year. However, I will implement Klokkhammer's point about showing the number of games played since this only effects the way the results are presented and not the way they are calculated.

It is still quite early in the season. We all have some skill. You have beaten us (me) enough times live Klokkhammer to prove that you are still in a serious threat. Not to mention benkogambit whose sng skillz are light years ahead of the rest of us. I have gotten lucky in 3 games thus far, but that can change fast. The title is very much still wide open. There may even be new unknowns from the blog showing up. if we assume that MrSmith, MrEMC2 and myself are better players than the rest of you, we could consider a bounty system where whoever knocks us out of the tourney gets an extra point (or fraction of a point). Although I don't care too much for this route.

MrSmith suggested that we drop a low score or no show. Let's look more closely at this. Assume we play 11 games this year, 1 each month with a break in July. We can then take the top 10 scores to determine the champion. If everyone has at least 1 no show, then this is good. It helps balance the scores and creates no problems. If however several players have made every game, then it can have a serious impact on the standings.

For example, let's assume that the season ended now. MrSmith, MrE and I have played all games thus far. currently MrSmith is leading over me by 1 point (bastard lol). if we drop our lowest score I drop my last place finish from February (1 point) and MrSmith drops his 2nd place finish from April (4 points). Thus, I would win the championship by two points! MrE would also lose a 3rd place itm finish for 3 points. How this will play out at the end of the season is impossible to predict at this point. However, if we want to make this change we ought to agree on in now rather than later. I don't have a strong preferance regarding this point. Let me know if this is something you want to implement.

Finally, since we have used so much space on the leaderboard, perhaps we should discuss what we are going to do with the year-end results. I can arrange some sort of award and immortal fame on the blog. However there are plenty of other options. Come with ideas if you have them, but this doesn't need to be decided any time soon.

I need to get back to work! Let me know you thoughts...
Roland


Monday, April 19, 2010

Leader Board System

Klokkhammer asked for some more details regarding the leader board. Here you are :)

I wanted a system that took into account the number of players in each game, the number og games that each player played and your finish place. There are several ways to do this but the main two are as follows:

1- The way we have done it thus far. If there are five players in a tourney, then 1st place gets 5 points and 5th place gets 1 point. Anyone that didn't play gets 0 points. This seems to cover all the bases pretty well. It rewards being a regular player and it rewards consistantly placing high. However, it does not reward playing to win. I have won 3 out of 4 tourneys, but was the first to bust out in the only one I didn't win. While MrSmith has only won 1 tourney but placed 2nd in the other 3. MrSmith has been more consistant and is thus at the top of the leader board in front of me.

2- Some systems give the tourney winner an extra point as a bonus for winning. If we used this system, then I would get 3 extra points for my three wins and MrSmith would get 1 extra point for his one win. Thus I would be leading him by 1 point. If we look at ROI then we see that only MrEMC2, MrSmith and myself have a positive ROI. I am in the lead with 127 %, MrSmith has 93% and MrEMC2 has 14%. (MrE has taken 3rd in all 4 tourneys however two have had payouts less than the buy in due to few players. So his roi should be higher). Everyone else has a negative ROI at this point. ROI might not be fair considering we play so few games.

I don't have any preferance as to what system we use. Come with something completely different if you have an idea. My main goal is just to get more people to play regularly. The lack of players has the largest impact on our statistics. Notice that the three leaders are the only three that have played every game... Furthermore, we are not even half way through the year. Anyone, even an unknown newcomer could still win the title. It also helps to pay Pstars their annual luck box fee. This comes in handy when you need to hit a 4 outer on the river like I did vs MrE last night :)

Here are the detailed results thus far. Im not posting everyone's ROI, but you can calculate it yourself if you really want to.

Any and all suggestions are welcome :)


April Private Game Results

Thanks for another good game yesterday. The poker gods were smiling on me when my KK held up versus seabreeze and his AJo. I also got a lucky string of cards at the end of HU play vs MrSmith. I wish I could say the same about the Sunday 250K. We were already ITM and I was getting short with a Q of about 0,4 when I picked up KK in the bb. I called another short stack who moved all in with A10s. He flopped a flush to knock me out around 2000th out of 24000 players. Once again almost deep...

Here are the updated leader board standings. As you can see there was no change and MrSmith is still the leader, but only just....

And as always, here is the winning hand history:

Thanks again for a fun evening! Roland

April Private Game Hand History

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

New SnG game on Pokerstars: Knockout!

Pokerstars is now offering single table SnGs in which you pay a bit extra on top of the normal buyin and fee. The extra cash is a bounty that you get for knocking out other players. I was curious if these would be more profitable or less profitable than the regular SnG. I played one last night and I ran some numbers on it this morning. Here is what I have found.

A regular 3.40 single table sng has the following payout structure in terms of ROI:
1st = $ 13.50 = 297 % ROI
2nd = $ 8.10 = 138 % ROI
3rd = $ 5.40 = 59 % ROI

A knockout 3.40 + .75 bounty sng looks like this before considering the bounties you win:
1st = $ 13.50 = 229 % ROI
2nd = $ 8.10 = 98 % ROI
3rd = $ 5.40 = 32 % ROI

Thus far the knockouts don't look too appetizing. Now how many bounties do you need to win to make these tourneys more profitable than the regular? Essentially the bounties increase the prize pool without increasing the fees. I have run the numbers and...
1st + 4 bounties = 302 % ROI
2nd + 3 bounties = 152 % ROI
3rd + 2 bounties = 68 % ROI

So the question now becomes: Is it realistic to win enough bounties on average to make these more profitable? I have only played 1 game thus far so I'm not sure. However, if you win, you are guaranteed at least two bounties. 1 from the 2nd place guy and your own. In addition, you may win a bounty but place outside the money. This reduces your loss from by 18% for each bounty.

If you play any of these, it would be great if you posted the number of bounties you won and if you noticed any difference in play.

I took 1st and won 5 bounties for a 321 % ROI.

Roland

Knockout Hand History

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Private Game April 18th

Our next private game is now set up. I know most of your wives are away for the weekend. So there should be no excuses for not playing :) Get on over to Pokerstars and get registered!

See you on Sunday!
Roland

Poker in Budapest

I just got back from a weekend trip to Budapest. It is a nice city especially if you are a meat and potatos kind of guy like me! Our hotel was in the center of town just across the bridge from the Gellert.

I played poker Friday evening at the Miami Poker Club. There are several casinos and poker clubs in Budapest, but the Miami club was the only one that I knew was running a tourney on Friday. I took a taxi to the address only to find that the poker room was in the middle of a very large shopping center! It must be great for the husbands trying to waste time while their wives are shopping – lol! Anyway, the club was quite nice and seemed fairly new. They had about 50 good poker tables. Proffessional dealers at them all, but pretty cheap chipsets with metal inserts. They are open pretty much all day.

They run a micro cash game until 8 pm. The blinds are 50/50 HUF which is about 25 cents and the minimum buyin was 5000 HUF. Afer 8, the blinds went up to 100/200 with a minimum buyin of 10000 HUF. The tourney was a 90 man tourney with a 10000 + 2000 HUF buyin. Most hands in all games had 4 or 5 players limp calling out of position preflop and at least one genius calling all the way to the river regardless of the board or betsizes. I’ve never seen so many loose-passive players in my life! It made for easy pickings if you were patient. I didn’t bluff a single hand all evening. I played any pp, sc, Axs and AK and either value bet post flop or folded. Nobody seemed to notice or care that I folded 90 % of my hands. Every time I made a big raise preflop I got lots of action. I only lost a single hand that went to a showdown. The hand I lost was KK. I flopped a set on a AK4 rainbow board and check-raised all in. The caller had 10J and caught a Q on the river – LOL!

I ended up spending 32000 HUF in buyins and won nearly 100K HUF by the time I was done for a nice profit. Food, drinks and poker are cheap in Budapest. This might make an good place for a weekend trip for us some time...

I also tried out a new card gaurd from www.dealerbuttons.co.uk . I got my GR logo engraved on the back and will post some pics when I get time.

PS: I think we need to have a private game on Pokerstars this Sunday. I’ll set it up later today and post the password. As MrSmith suggested, I will also e-mail everyone this time.

Roland